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The Portuguese Property Market Report 2019

The Economy of The Country of Portugal

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The Overview

After the country of Portugal had faced a rather challenging period which has been characterized by high levels of unemployment, by strong financial constraints, and an accelerated reform, this Mediterranean country has now successfully completed a most demanding adjustment program and is now setting its sights high.
The economic sentiment indicator for the country of Portugal remains at historical levels as we speak, and it remains consistent with the maintenance of solid growth of activity.
This momentum has also spread to the business and consumer confidence indicators, further highlighting the lasting resilience of the corporate and domestically-oriented sectors alike in the country of Portugal.
The country of Portugal now promotes itself as a strategic gateway by being the most western-placed country on the European continent. It would not be dishonest to describe it as a little seaside country that looks out across the Atlantic ocean and towards the Americas with the Azores islands scattered in-between.
The country of Portugal is now often being cited as one of the most admirable examples of economic resurgence, and is being enthusiastically applauded by numerous international institutions for its continuous growth of the GDP.
The major sectors that contribute to this growth of the Portuguese economy include – trade, food service activities, and accommodation.
These three constitute the three major sectors which are directly related to and accredited for the recent boom in the tourism sector as well, which is closely followed by the growth in the public administration sector, the health sector, and the education sector with nineteen percent, and in the third place with the property market sector activities with twelve percent credits to the restructuring of the rental legislation that has abolished the rent control in the historic centres.
The tourism sector of the country of Portugal has demonstrated a solid growth and the year of 2018 is the most successful year that has ever been recorded for its performance. The tourist arrivals to the country of Portugal up until the month of November of 2018 registered a staggering forty seven point six percent growth when compared to the year of 2017. Between the year of 2014 and the year od 2018 the number of tourist arrivals to the country of Portugal had increased by more than sixty four percent according to a report published by the ANA – the Airports of Portugal – and the Portuguese airports welcomed around fifty five million passengers in general between the arrivals and the departures.
The airport of the city of Lisbon had received a total of twenty nine million passengers in 2018, which represents a new annual record and with the demand being so high, the ANA has signed an agreement with the government of the country of Portugal to finance an expansion of the capacity of the airport of the city of Lisbon – A one point fifteen billion Euros with of investment until the year of 2028 for the extension of the existing airport of the city of Lisbon, and for the opening of a new civil airport in the city of Montijo, a project which is entirely financed by the private sector. – These investments represent a major milestone for the expansion of the capacity of the airport of the city of Lisbon, as well as the renewed commitment by the ANA to contribute to the further development of the economy of the country of Portugal
The revenues from the tourism sector in the country of Portugal have increased by four point three percent – to one point zero five billion Euros – in the month of November of 2018 from the one billion Euros in the same month the previous year. In the year of 2017 the revenues from the tourism sector in the country of Portugal rose by nineteen point five percent – to a new record of fifteen point two billion Euros – from the twelve point seven billion Euros in the same month in 2016. This massive growth of nearly twenty percent has marked the tourism sector of the country of Portugal one of the major contributors of the Portuguese GDP, as it now represents thirteen point seven percent of it. The tourism sector is also an important job generator for the country of Portugal, as in just the year of 2017 alone it has created over four hundred thousand jobs – a nine point four percent of all employment in the country of Portugal according to the Statistics Portugal – the INE.
The inflation in the country of Portugal is predicted to be lower than in the rest of the Euro area according to the Bank of Portugal. It has average at one point two percent in the year of 2018 amid the significant volatility surrounding it throughout the year. The rate of it had peaked at one point eight percent – the YoY – in the third quarter of 2018, but has dropped abruptly to only zero point eight percent in the last quarter of 2018 owing mainly to the downward corrections in the price of energy and tourism accommodation in the country of Portugal.
As the domestic demand of the country of Portugal continues to benefit from the favourable conditions of the labour market, the inflation is predicted to increase ever so slightly to one point three percent in the year of 2019, and to one point six percent in the year of 2020. Accordingly, the core inflation is projected to move marginally above the deadline rate, a prediction that is further supported by the gradual unfreezing of the salary progressions and the wage growth.
The recent recovery in the residential property construction has also contributed, in moderation, to the inflation of the house prices in the country of Portugal, to eight point five percent – the YoY – in the third quarter of 2018 after a peak of twelve point two percent earlier in the year.
In the first quarter of 2018, the exports of goods and services from the country of Portugal had decelerated across all components. In spite of this, however, not unlike in the previous years, the increase in exports was still higher than the external growth of the demand, which has led to some additional gains in the Portuguese market shares, albeit still lower than in the year of 2017.
It is also worth noting here though that between the year of 2010 and the year of 2017, there was a significant rise in the export market share for the country of Portugal, which had reflected an increase in the competitive capacity of the companies and firms of the country of Portugal in the international markets. Additionally, the goods and the services are expected to be sixty seven percent above the levels set in the year of 2008, and account for fifty one percent of the Portuguese GDP, compared to the twenty four percent GDP at the start of the European Union.
The component of the tourism sector of the country of Portugal continues to stand out as one of the most dynamic market sectors in the country, and by the year of 2020 the exports of the tourism sector of the country of Portugal are predicted to double the level that they had been at before the international financial crisis that had also struck the country of Portugal in the year of 2009, now accounting for around eight percent of the Portuguese GDP according to the predictions of the Bank of Portugal.
The agriculture sector and the manufacturing sector of the country of Portugal, although traditionally strong, have faced some challenges in the recent years which have led to both of them following the similar I‡ – the Innovation and Development – strategies in order to increase their productivity and create value-added products, with a target to attract more niche markets which will be willing to pay for a premium quality.

The Key Factors of Success – The Highlights of The Portuguese Market

The Economy

– The GDP Growth = ↑two point seven percent;
– The Credit Rate – ↑ BBB – With a positive outlook;
– The Unemployment Rate – ↓ eight point nine percent;
– The Disposable income ↑;
– The Mortgage Interest Rates ↓.

The Property Market Activity

– The Market Growth Rate – ↑ eighty seven percent – Between the year of 2014 and the year of 2017;
– The city of Lisbon area recorded the biggest number of transactions – Thirty five point two percent;
– Twenty five percent of the buyers are foreigners;
– The House Price Index Record – One hundred and nine point seventy two Index Points.

The Economic Indicator

The Gross Domestic Product – The GDP – and The Unemployment

The year on year – the YoY – GDP for the country of Portugal has been recording a continual positive growth since the year of 2012. For the first time since the year of 2009, the country of Portugal has achieved a GDP that is above the average for the European Union – a two point seven percent growth, mainly driven by the demand for the Portuguese tourism, property, and exports.
The predictions for the economy of the country of Portugal indicate an ongoing expansion over the period between the year of 2018 and the year of 202, albeit at a progressively slower pace. After a two point seven percent growth in the year of 2017, the GDP for the country of Portugal should increase by two point one percent in the year of 2018, one point eight percent in the year of 2019, and one point six percent in the year of 2020, following the overall EU trend, but with slightly higher values.
Based on a sustained growth of the GDP, the economy of the country of Portugal has been mostly characterised by the remarkable and progressive achievements of the macroeconomic imbalances, by implementing structural measures in numerous areas, the leveraging of which was fueled by the low and the stable interest rates which have given the country of Portugal an exquisite opportunity to increase this trend further.
Even though the Bank of Portugal has predicted a slowdown for the Portuguese year on year GDP growth, it has also predicted a one point six percentage overall increase by the year of 2021. The unemployment rate in the country of Portugal is also predicted to keep decreasing as it has been since the year of 2014, as well as that it will remain below the Euro twenty eight average.
On the other hand, the employment in the country of Portugal is increasing across most sectors, most specifically the construction sector and the tourism sector industries, both of which are among the main causes for the decrease in the unemployment rate in the country, making it one of the largest and most prominent annual drops on the European continent. The unemployment rate amongst the young people in the country of Portugal is still quite high however.
The skills and the human capital are the cornerstone upon which the country of Portugal has been building its new road to growth. Within the European continent, the country of Portugal was one of the countries that had been hit the hardest by the economic crisis in 2009. Since then the Portuguese government has undertaken extensive reforms in several of the country’s sectors in order to strengthen the public finances, to improve the performance of the labour market, and to increase the competitiveness in the global markets and the exports. – All of these represent the key steps towards creating jobs and reducing the unemployment.
In the year of 2013 the unemployment rate in the country of Portugal had reached its peak achieving a staggering sixteen point two percent of the active population and, five years later, in the year of 2018, the Bank of Portugal has predicted almost a ten percent decrease, and by the year of 2012 the unemployment rate in the country of Portugal is predicted to drop down to an amazing five point five percent.
Securing the equitable high quality education and jobs represents an essential part in building a strong foundation for the further growth and the social well-being for the people of the country of Portugal. The positive contribution in employment has been closely followed by an increase in the accumulations of the human capital, as is easily measured by the average number of workforce schooling years, which most definitely represents an upwards trend in the average education of the Portuguese people.

The Government Bonds and The Credit Rating

Since the country of Portugal had faced the economic crisis back in the year of 2011, and the downgrade of the rating of the country of Portugal to “Junk” by the most renowned Credit Rating Agencies in the world, the country of Portugal has steadily been recovering on all fronts across multiple economic sectors. These macroeconomic projections and upgrades have allowed the country of Portugal to improve on the international capital markets and set an example to all other nations of the European Union.
Remarkably, the top three rating agencies in this sector – the Standard & Poor’s, the Fitch, and the Moody’s – have updated the rate for the country of Portugal to BBB-, BBB, and Baa3 respectively, after almost eight years of a “Junk” rate, which has upgraded the country of Portugal to an Investment Grade with the Positive – the S&P – and the Stable – The Fitch and the Moody’s – outlook.
The main factors responsible for these upgrades are being attributed to the elevated government debt of the country of Portugal which has now moved to a more sustainable, albeit gradual, downwards trend with limited risk of reversal. The broadening of the drivers of the Portuguese growth and its structurally improved external position have increased the country’s economic resilience.
As a statement of the strong economic and fiscal performance, the Portugal ten-year government bonds yield has been issued in the month of November of 2015, priced circa two point six hundred and two percent dropped to approximately one point seven hundred and twenty three percent in the month of December of 2018, representing a zero point eight hundred and seventy nine percent difference.
For the first time since the year of 2012, and as a direct consequence of the low inflation environment, which has also been associated with the decrease of the unemployment rate, the gross disposable income per capita in the country of Portugal has been registering a most positive growth since the year of 2013, registering almost nineteen thousand Euros.
It has been predicted that this indicator will keep on rising as the employment continues to grow and the unemployment continues to progressively decrease.
At the same time, the interest rates on the housing loans in the country of Portugal have also been declining almost constantly, finally achieving an average of three point one percent in the year of 2017. The non performing loans held by the banks of the country of Portugal are also declining at a substantial rate as the economy of the country of Portugal expands.
According to the Bank of Portugal, the ration of the non performing loans – the NPL – has been reduced by six point two percentage points which means that there was a thirty six percent reduction in terms of the total non performing loans stock, a percentage that corresponds to eighteen billion Euros.
This evolution has shown us, according to the Bank of Portugal, that certain banks and public debt securities portfolios in the country of Portugal are increasing their availability, especially in the Portuguese system.
The number of the deposits and the loans have remained constant over the years, with the value of the deposits always significantly superior to the value of the loans, which represents another safety and stability indicator for the economy of the country of Portugal.
The latest updates by the Bank of Portugal have confirmed that the liquidity indicator has remained at the high levels as the deposits of the clients have increased by three point sic percent, an increase that has also been witnessed in all the main institutions of the banking system of the country of Portugal in the second quarter of 2018.

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The Economic Indicator

The Gross Domestic Product – The GDP – and The Unemployment

The year on year – the YoY – GDP for the country of Portugal has been recording a continual positive growth since the year of 2012. For the first time since the year of 2009, the country of Portugal has achieved a GDP that is above the average for the European Union – a two point seven percent growth, mainly driven by the demand for the Portuguese tourism, property, and exports.
The predictions for the economy of the country of Portugal indicate an ongoing expansion over the period between the year of 2018 and the year of 202, albeit at a progressively slower pace. After a two point seven percent growth in the year of 2017, the GDP for the country of Portugal should increase by two point one percent in the year of 2018, one point eight percent in the year of 2019, and one point six percent in the year of 2020, following the overall EU trend, but with slightly higher values.
Based on a sustained growth of the GDP, the economy of the country of Portugal has been mostly characterised by the remarkable and progressive achievements of the macroeconomic imbalances, by implementing structural measures in numerous areas, the leveraging of which was fueled by the low and the stable interest rates which have given the country of Portugal an exquisite opportunity to increase this trend further.
Even though the Bank of Portugal has predicted a slowdown for the Portuguese year on year GDP growth, it has also predicted a one point six percentage overall increase by the year of 2021. The unemployment rate in the country of Portugal is also predicted to keep decreasing as it has been since the year of 2014, as well as that it will remain below the Euro twenty eight average.
On the other hand, the employment in the country of Portugal is increasing across most sectors, most specifically the construction sector and the tourism sector industries, both of which are among the main causes for the decrease in the unemployment rate in the country, making it one of the largest and most prominent annual drops on the European continent. The unemployment rate amongst the young people in the country of Portugal is still quite high however.
The skills and the human capital are the cornerstone upon which the country of Portugal has been building its new road to growth. Within the European continent, the country of Portugal was one of the countries that had been hit the hardest by the economic crisis in 2009. Since then the Portuguese government has undertaken extensive reforms in several of the country’s sectors in order to strengthen the public finances, to improve the performance of the labour market, and to increase the competitiveness in the global markets and the exports. – All of these represent the key steps towards creating jobs and reducing the unemployment.
In the year of 2013 the unemployment rate in the country of Portugal had reached its peak achieving a staggering sixteen point two percent of the active population and, five years later, in the year of 2018, the Bank of Portugal has predicted almost a ten percent decrease, and by the year of 2012 the unemployment rate in the country of Portugal is predicted to drop down to an amazing five point five percent.
Securing the equitable high quality education and jobs represents an essential part in building a strong foundation for the further growth and the social well-being for the people of the country of Portugal. The positive contribution in employment has been closely followed by an increase in the accumulations of the human capital, as is easily measured by the average number of workforce schooling years, which most definitely represents an upwards trend in the average education of the Portuguese people.

The Government Bonds and The Credit Rating

Since the country of Portugal had faced the economic crisis back in the year of 2011, and the downgrade of the rating of the country of Portugal to “Junk” by the most renowned Credit Rating Agencies in the world, the country of Portugal has steadily been recovering on all fronts across multiple economic sectors. These macroeconomic projections and upgrades have allowed the country of Portugal to improve on the international capital markets and set an example to all other nations of the European Union.
Remarkably, the top three rating agencies in this sector – the Standard & Poor’s, the Fitch, and the Moody’s – have updated the rate for the country of Portugal to BBB-, BBB, and Baa3 respectively, after almost eight years of a “Junk” rate, which has upgraded the country of Portugal to an Investment Grade with the Positive – the S&P – and the Stable – The Fitch and the Moody’s – outlook.
The main factors responsible for these upgrades are being attributed to the elevated government debt of the country of Portugal which has now moved to a more sustainable, albeit gradual, downwards trend with limited risk of reversal. The broadening of the drivers of the Portuguese growth and its structurally improved external position have increased the country’s economic resilience.
As a statement of the strong economic and fiscal performance, the Portugal ten-year government bonds yield has been issued in the month of November of 2015, priced circa two point six hundred and two percent dropped to approximately one point seven hundred and twenty three percent in the month of December of 2018, representing a zero point eight hundred and seventy nine percent difference.
For the first time since the year of 2012, and as a direct consequence of the low inflation environment, which has also been associated with the decrease of the unemployment rate, the gross disposable income per capita in the country of Portugal has been registering a most positive growth since the year of 2013, registering almost nineteen thousand Euros.
It has been predicted that this indicator will keep on rising as the employment continues to grow and the unemployment continues to progressively decrease.
At the same time, the interest rates on the housing loans in the country of Portugal have also been declining almost constantly, finally achieving an average of three point one percent in the year of 2017. The non performing loans held by the banks of the country of Portugal are also declining at a substantial rate as the economy of the country of Portugal expands.
According to the Bank of Portugal, the ration of the non performing loans – the NPL – has been reduced by six point two percentage points which means that there was a thirty six percent reduction in terms of the total non performing loans stock, a percentage that corresponds to eighteen billion Euros.
This evolution has shown us, according to the Bank of Portugal, that certain banks and public debt securities portfolios in the country of Portugal are increasing their availability, especially in the Portuguese system.
The number of the deposits and the loans have remained constant over the years, with the value of the deposits always significantly superior to the value of the loans, which represents another safety and stability indicator for the economy of the country of Portugal.
The latest updates by the Bank of Portugal have confirmed that the liquidity indicator has remained at the high levels as the deposits of the clients have increased by three point sic percent, an increase that has also been witnessed in all the main institutions of the banking system of the country of Portugal in the second quarter of 2018.

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